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Wimbledon 2024: Gentlemen’s Singles, Everything you need to know.

With Wimbledon just a few days away, will the top seeds once again dominate, or will a new contender arise from the shadows?



Tennis’ premium grand slam is right around the corner. Last year, Carlos Alcaraz came through an absolute epic against seven time champion Novak Djokovic to win his maiden title at SW19.

 

After endearing himself to the Wimbledon crowd with last year’s performance, the crowds on centre court will no doubt be behind the Spaniard the whole way.

 

But retaining his title will be quite the challenge.

 

Because of the uniqueness of it’s grass surface, Wimbledon is perhaps the hardest grand slam to win, and has always been dominated by the big seeds. With this as its history, it is not unreasonable to assume that it will be one of Sinner, Djokovic or Alcaraz who lifts the title.

 

But who will be the champion?

 

Interestingly, it was assumed that Sinner would be the first of the new generation to win Wimbledon, with it believed that Alcaraz would be more suited to clay. Alcaraz, however, surprised everyone by demonstrating his remarkable versatility at last year’s tournament. That said, Sinner’s game is exceptionally well suited to grass and minus last year’s result, the Italian has had better results at Wimbledon than Alcaraz.

 

Sinner is the better grass court player, and will go into the tournament as the World number 1, after picking up the title in Halle against Hurkacz last week. Despite Alcaraz being the defending champion, Sinner will be the man to beat.

 

This has been mirrored by the bookmakers who have Sinner (13/8)as the marginal favourite over Alcaraz (7/4)heading into the tournament. How much this has to do with Djokovic’s placement in the draw, we will have to wait and see.

 

Despite being in arguably the worst form of his career, Djokovic and Wimbledon have a very special relationship. Even with the cobwebs starting to form on his 2024 trophy cabinet, it would be unwise to rule him out.

 

Djokovic is one Wimbledon title away from equalling Roger Federer’s 8 titles; when he’s down we often see the best from Novak, odds of 4/1 are as good as we’ve seen for Djokovic at Wimbledon for a while.

 

The bookmakers have thoroughly reflected the narrative that the top seeds only ever win Wimbledon with Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic coming in at an implied probability of 92% to lift the trophy.

 

Wimbledon is a notoriously difficult grand slam to win, with the reason being the lack of exposure players get to grass courts. This will always lend itself towards the top players in the world who were more likely to have the opportunities to play on grass when they were younger.

 

This does not bode well for the other players hoping to make history, but they should not be disheartened, there is still room for optimism.

 

So what factors should you be looking for when picking a potential Wimbledon champion?

 

Historically, those who have succeeded on clay often struggle with the grass, so clay court specialists like Ruud, Rune and Tsitsipas you can often rule out pretty quickly. But what makes a good grass court player?  

 

Well, one very well renowned factor in a strong serve.

 

In the last 10 years, Berrettini, Hurkacz, Kyrgios, Anderson, Raonic, Cilic, Isner have all had success at Wimbledon, reaching either the final or the semi-finals. Whilst none of these players were ultimately successful in their bids to become Wimbledon champion, the consistent success of the powerful server is definitely note-worthy.

 

If we take this information and translate it to the current crop of players, who stands out?

 

Hurkacz (16/1) recently made the Halle final and is in good form, he normally does well at Wimbledon.

 

Berrettini has been gradually making his return from injury, a few years ago Berrettini was considered one of the best grass court players in the world, he beat some big names on his way to the Stuttgart final earlier this month, depending on his draw he could be excellent value at 20/1.

 

A new name I would like to consider is Ben Shelton.

 

The young American put the tennis world on notice last year when he made the semi-finals of the US Open, with his potent serve grabbing a lot of headlines in particular.

 

It is worth noting that Shelton’s success on grass has been slim, but with only one Wimbledon under his belt, could he translate his big game to grass? Only time will tell.

 

Shelton is not the only American to keep an eye out for at SW19 this year, with fellow compatriots Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz also showing a lot of potential on the surface.

 

Paul in particular has been very impressive as of late, winning at Queen’s earlier this month. Paul also brings me around nicely to perhaps one of the most important factors at determining a potential Wimbledon Champion.

 

I know a lot of you were thinking: “Well Djokovic doesn’t have a big serve, neither does Alcaraz”, which is of course correct, but they do both possess exceptional court coverage.

 

With grass being the fastest of all the surfaces, having exemplary court coverage is paramount if a player is to succeed. This is perhaps why clay court specialists struggle so much on grass, as the ball moves so much slower and bounces so much higher than it does on grass.

 

Of all the recent Wimbledon champions, Alcaraz, Djokovic, Federer, Murray, they all have some of the best movement ever seen on a tennis court. This is why they succeed at Wimbledon.

 

So if we look at this narrative, then Tommy Paul fits the description of a successful Wimbledon player, as do the likes of De Minaur and perhaps the man most likely to upset the top three, Daniil Medvedev.

 

Medvedev has all the factors to make a Wimbledon champion, big serve, excellent court coverage, and has recently adapted his need to stand so far behind the base line on grass when receiving a serve, which was his undoing against Alcaraz at last year’s tournament.

 

Medvedev’s net play is his only noticeable weakness, but aside from that he more than possesses the potential to win Wimbledon, he has been overlooked by the bookies in my opinion and at 16/1 is good value.

 

What of the British players’ chances at their home grand slam?

 

Well, the form of Jack Draper has put a lot of people on notice. After winning the Stuttgart Open, Draper then went on to beat Alcaraz at Queen’s before ultimately losing to Tommy Paul. Draper is starting to develop into a very good player, he should be seeded going into Wimbledon and following some excellent results on grass, who’s to say Britain doesn’t have a future contender?

 

 

 

 

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