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Monte Carlo Predictions

Will it be Carlos in Carlo, will Sinner continue his dominance or can a surprise package take the title?





The first clay court Masters tournament of the season has already begun, but with the top players all receiving byes to the next round, which of them possess the best chance of lifting the title in Monte Carlo?

 

The following will assess the chances of the best players in the world compared to their current betting odds, and the possibilities of some of the outside players.

 


The Top 8

 

Novak Djokovic: 13/5

The favourite for the title and the world number one, Djokovic hasn’t won the title in Monte Carlo since 2015.

 

While it is never wise to bet against the great man, I don’t see much value in this bet, given he is in the same half of the draw as Alcaraz.

 

5/10

 

Carlos Alcaraz: 11/4

With the recent form of Sinner, Alcaraz has seen himself drop down to number three in the world, he will be desperate to remind people why he was and still is considered by many to be the future of tennis.

 

Alcaraz is probably the best clay court player of the top three, there is much more value in him than in Djokovic and maybe even than in Sinner.

 

8/10

 

Jannik Sinner: 3/1

The best player in the world on current form, Sinner has already won a Masters 1000 title and a Grand Slam this year.

 

That said, Sinner has only ever won one tournament on clay, Umag in 2022. His game is not unsuited to the surface, but given the amount of tennis Sinner has played recently, his first clay tournament of the season may be a step too far.

 

7/10

 

Daniil Medvedev: 12/1

Medvedev has always been very vocal about his dislike for clay, and although he managed to pick up his first tournament win on the surface last year, his game does not combine with clay well at all.

 

While it is possible he beats some of the lesser players, he will struggle against anyone in the top 10 on clay.

 

3/10

 

Alexander Zverev: 16/1

Very good value for money this tournament, Zverev’s form has gone somewhat under the radar this season, putting together good results in Melbourne and Miami.

 

Zverev has proved in the past that he has the game to compete on clay, pushing Nadal close in a Roland Garros semi-final before succumbing to a brutal ankle injury. Zverev will definitely be one to watch.

 

9/10

 

Holger Rune 20/1

Probably the best value in the top 8, Rune is a clay court specialist who has put together some exceptional performances on the surface including making the final of this tournament last year.

 

Rune has been in pretty bad form over the last year, but the draw for the most part has been kind, until he potentially plays Sinner in the quarter-finals.

 

It wasn’t long ago that Rune was spoken of in the same regard as Alcaraz and Sinner, he is still only 20 and I can see him putting together some good performances in Monte Carlo.

 

9/10

 

Andrey Rublev: 25/1

The defending champion from last year, Rublev has had plenty of success on clay in his career. The issue for Rublev much like Rune has been his form, losing in his first match in the last two Masters events.

 

As the defending champion Rublev has proven capable of winning big tournaments, but he always looks a little short of what is required to win.

 

25/1 is good value, but it is unlikely that he will retain his crown.

 

6/10

 

Casper Ruud 35/1

The most renowned clay court specialist on tour, Ruud has made the last two Roland Garros finals and has time after time proven himself to be a huge problem for anyone on the surface.

 

His form has also fallen away drastically since he made the final of Roland Garros last year, but much like Rune, it would make perfect sense if he chose to find his best form as the clay court season swings into motion.

 

Fantastic value at 35/1 to claim his first Master’s title.

 

8/10

 

The rest of the field

One player that the bookies seem to have drastically overlooked is Stefanos Tsitsipas. Whilst his form has been somewhat wayward recently, Tsitsipas is a two-time champion in Monte Carlo. He is going at 28/1, and if he overcomes a tricky potential second round match against either Nicolas Jarry or Tomas Etcheverry, he could well take advantage of the gap left by Medvedev’s inevitable departure.

 

A young talent to keep an eye on is Arthur Fils, who finds himself with a promising draw against fellow countryman Mannarino, but also in the same section of the draw as Djokovic. Fils is only 19 but has shown a lot of potential in the past. If you’re looking for an outside punt at 150/1 then he could be your man.

 

South American players always tend to do well on clay and Nicolas Jarry has had some excellent results on the surface recently, he comes into the tournament at 125/1.

 

We have already touched on a young man with potential to do well, but what about an old man? Grigor Dimitrov has been in some of the best form of his career in what should be his twilight. His performances in Miami showed he is capable of producing high level tennis, it may be a stretch for him to win the tournament but 66/1 is decent odds.

 

Overall Prediction

The best value players for me are, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Rune and Ruud, with Zverev the most likely of the four to win the tournament.

 

I would say that Alcaraz is the most likely player to win in Monte Carlo, but don’t write off Zverev and Rune in what promises to be an excellent Masters tournament.  

 

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